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While the battle is still raging in Libya, Omar Ashour considers the impediments to democracy in the country once (or if) the Qaddafi regime is overthrown in his article “ “Libya after Qaddafi” published by Project Syndicate http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ashour4/English
He gives four scenarios that could potentially occur in the post Qaddafi period and threaten the democratization process: civil or tribal war, military rule, becoming stuck in transition and partition. Given Libya’s past, the first scenario is, according to him, the most risky, but can be averted if tribal and regional polarization is averted. He rules out military rule in the country, by explaining that after four decades of military base dictatorship, Libyans will not agree to it. Being stuck in transition is a very common case for country escaping dictatorships, especially when it lacks democratic experience while partition seems unlikely in Libya, a country with 22 administrative districts.
It is hard to tell now, especially as long as Qaddafi remains in power, whether the Libyans will be able to overcome all the obstacles to democracy or if one of the previously cited scenarios will in fact take place, thus rendering the Arab Spring void in Libya.
